If you are into sports betting for some time, then you must be aware of the importance of the odds. Finding great value in the Betfair match odds is a great way to win your bets in any of the sports markets. Many novice bettors don’t realize the importance of the odds and instead bet on the most probable outcomes. By doing so, you might win your wager, but you will not be able to make much profit. In this article, we will discuss the ways by which you can find a great value out of the Betfair match odds.
The odds are numerical values which represent the chance of an event to occur. Using that numerical value, you can calculate the implied probability of the outcome. Odds are generated for each market so you can calculate the implied probability for all of them. Suppose there’s an upcoming ODI match between Australia and England and Australia are at 3 odds of winning the match. Here’s how we can calculate the implied probability:
Implied probability percentage = (1/odds)*100
= (1/3)*100
= 33.33 %
Using this value, now we know that Australia has a 33.33% chance of winning. Well, the actual probability for Australia is 50%, if we use the simple formula. Since 50% is greater than 33.33%, we can imply that a wager on Aussies at odds of 3 yields a positive value. Now we suppose that the odds for England are 1.5 and apply the same formula:
Implied probability percentage = (1/1.5)*100
= 66.67%
The actual probability for England is also 50% which is less than the implied probability, and hence a wager on England will generate a negative value. The actual probability of a wager on tails winning is also 50%, which is LESS than the implied probability of the associated odds. Therefore, a bet on tails at 1.5 offers negative value.
Now you have understood the role of implied probability in generating the values, but there’s one more important aspect. You need to identify those positive wagers which are going to be profitable in the long run. If you consistently bet with those wagers when the Betfair match odds are on your side, you are most likely to get an overall gain!
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